WISHLIST TO SALES CALCULATOR
Enter your wishlist count and price. See expected launch revenue, break-even point, and how different publisher deals affect your bottom line. All numbers based on 2026 indie benchmarks.
Your numbers
Typical indie launch: 5,000–30,000
Typical indie price: $9.99–$24.99
2026 indie benchmarks: weak 5–8%, avg 10–15%, strong 20%+
Typical year-1 conversion: 25–35% (sales, festivals, discounts compound)
Used to calculate break-even point under each deal type
Sales forecast
How your year-1 revenue compares across deals
Break-even point for $50,000 budget
Break-even assumes price stays constant, no discounts, and steady regional pricing impact. Real launches involve sales, bundles, and discounting - adjust expectations accordingly.
How the math works
Wishlist → Sales conversion: Industry data suggests indie games convert roughly 8–15% of wishlists into purchases in the first week. Across year 1, conversion typically climbs to 20–35% as sales, festivals, and discounts compound. We use your inputs as the rate.
Steam's cut: Steam takes 30% of gross revenue (25% after $10M, 20% after $50M, not relevant for most indies). The calculator deducts 30% before any publisher split.
Regional pricing realism: Steam's recommended regional pricing reduces effective ARPU by roughly 15–25% vs straight USD x copies. The calculator applies a 20% adjustment to model this realistically.
Mad Octopus deal: the calculator uses an example split (100% to the developer until 1,000 copies sold, then 10% to Mad Octopus). Real contracts are tailored per game, so treat this scenario as an illustration.
Traditional publisher comparison: Most traditional publishers take 30–50% revenue share. We use 30% as a generous baseline; many take more.
These are estimates, not guarantees. Real launches vary based on press coverage, review scores, virality, genre saturation, timing, and luck. Use this as a planning tool, not a contract.
Want these numbers to work for your game?
The biggest variable in this calculator is your wishlist count. We help indie devs build wishlists aggressively, and we only get paid after you do.